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| Refined copper |
Growth in global production of recycled-content copper is outpacing growth in the red metal’s primary sector so far in 2026. According to the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group (ICSG), overall global refined copper production grew by about 4 percent through the first four months of this year. Within that overall picture, primary production from ores grew by 3.5 percent. In contrast, secondary production based on recycled metal increased by a significant 6.8 percent. Therefore, recycled-content copper output is currently driving the momentum in the global refined copper market.
China Leads Scrap Processing While US Smelters Fuel Local Demand
The 6.8 percent growth in recycled-content copper output is mainly due to growth in the People’s Republic of China. However, global smelting activity may have experienced a lull in the last several weeks. According to SAVANT smelter monitoring activity by London-based Earth-i, Chinese smelting activity fell by 2.5 percent from April. Meanwhile, smelters in the United States have registered strong operating profiles in recent weeks. This North American strength stems from increased copper demand for data centers and supporting electrical power infrastructure. As a result, startup firms like Red Metals Inc. are announcing new investments in domestic recycled-content copper output.
Rising Exchange Inventories Threaten Price Ceilings Amid Tariff Worries
Meanwhile, global exchange warehouses are experiencing a massive influx of the red metal despite growing production. The ICSG reports that copper inventories at Comex, LME, and SHFE totaled over 1.14 million metric tons at the end of May 2026. This combined figure represents the highest inventory level since January of 2003. Therefore, these surging volumes signify a potential price ceiling on global copper prices. In addition, US traders are actively setting aside material in anticipation of potential import tariffs from the Trump administration.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The steady rise in global recycled-content copper output highlights the accelerating role of the circular economy in metal supply chains. However, the current multi-decade inventory high across major exchanges will likely cap short-term price rallies. Moving forward, the market must watch how quickly rising digital infrastructure demands can absorb this excess stockpile amidst growing tariff risks.
