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| Nickel Prices |
Robust Market Sentiment Drives Nickel Prices Surge
Nickel prices surged to $18,045/t on the LME, marking a 15-month high. Rising copper prices and geopolitical risks bolstered investor sentiment. Meanwhile, SHFE nickel hit an 8% daily limit on 6 January. As a result, nickel prices surge reflects strong market optimism despite limited immediate end-user demand.
Downstream Impact on Stainless Steel and Industrial Costs
Higher nickel prices directly affected stainless steel costs, with 304 2.0mm cold-rolled coil rising from 12,800–12,900 yuan/t in December 2025 to 13,400–13,500 yuan/t in early January 2026. In contrast, end-user demand strengthened only slightly. Therefore, downstream industrial pricing now reflects upstream metal volatility, reinforcing the link between nickel prices surge and production cost pressures.
Indonesian Policies and Future Price Outlook
Potential Indonesian nickel ore output cuts and export regulations may tighten supply. Nickel consumption in Indonesia is expected to rise by around 11% in 2026, creating potential gaps between supply and demand. As a result, market participants expect continued upside potential this year. Meanwhile, macroeconomic and geopolitical factors may sustain volatility. Consequently, nickel prices surge signals both immediate speculative activity and longer-term structural market trends.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Rising nickel prices primarily reflect supply tightening and investor risk-aversion, not end-user demand. Indonesian production policies may further elevate costs. Consequently, downstream stainless steel prices and industrial manufacturing costs will remain sensitive to nickel prices surge trends.
