 |
| LME |
Nickel and Lead Gluts Highlight Market Oversupply
LME shadow stocks reveal hidden nickel surpluses and volatile lead inventory. Registered nickel stocks rose sharply after off-warrant accumulation. Meanwhile, sudden 20,760-ton inflows drove nickel prices from $18,800 to $17,895 per ton. As a result, market participants must monitor both registered and off-warrant stocks to understand true supply dynamics.
Lead shows similar dynamics, with off-warrant inventories rising from 42,000 to 200,000 tons in 2025. Therefore, total lead stock reached 438,853 tons, the highest in over a decade. These shadow stocks highlight persistent oversupply and market churn, particularly in Singapore warehouses.
Aluminum, Copper, Zinc, and Other Metals’ Divergent Trends
Aluminum shadow stocks fell by 56% in 2025, despite large single-day inflows, pushing total inventory to 669,140 tons, the lowest since mid-2022. Consequently, aluminum prices rallied above $3,100 per ton. Copper stocks fell on the LME but rose on the CME due to tariff arbitrage, reflecting geographic shifts rather than supply shortages.
Zinc off-warrant depletion in early 2025 caused a market squeeze in October, later offset by 84,000-ton inflows. Tin stocks reached a two-year high at 8,039 tons, while cobalt remained largely hidden in off-warrant storage, emphasizing the critical role of shadow stocks in market transparency and price signaling.
ScrapInsight Commentary
LME shadow stocks provide deeper insight into metal supply beyond registered inventories. Nickel oversupply may pressure prices, while zinc and aluminum trends indicate shifting deficits. Traders and recyclers must consider off-warrant data to anticipate market volatility and optimize inventory strategies.
