 |
| Indonesia Nickel Market |
Regulatory Shifts and Supply Control Shape Indonesia’s Nickel Trade
Indonesia has become the world’s dominant nickel producer, controlling nearly 70% of global output. Arif Kurniawan, a former Glencore trader, now oversees approximately one-third of the domestic nickel ore market. Regulatory changes, such as ore export bans and short-term licenses, created volatility that Kurniawan leveraged to expand his trading and mining footprint. Meanwhile, Chinese smelters rely heavily on his supply, giving him strategic leverage.
Government interventions continue to shape market dynamics. President Prabowo’s administration increased royalties and cracked down on illegal mining, affecting concession operations. Export restrictions and environmental enforcement further tighten supply, supporting ore prices. Kurniawan’s alliances with smaller miners and smelters allow him to navigate these changes efficiently, consolidating influence in a fragmented market.
Market Impact on Global Nickel Supply and EV Battery Demand
Indonesia’s nickel dominance impacts global industries, particularly electric vehicle (EV) batteries and stainless steel production. Tight domestic supply has elevated ore prices and strengthened traders’ positions. Chinese firms, once aggressive investors, now face constrained output and higher costs. Kurniawan’s role as intermediary between miners and smelters mitigates market disruptions, ensuring consistent flows for industrial consumers. As a result, Indonesia’s pricing power increasingly sets the global floor for nickel, influencing international trade and strategic investment decisions.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Indonesia’s nickel market illustrates the critical role of traders in supply-constrained environments. Political shifts and export restrictions support ore prices, while Kurniawan’s market control underscores the value of strategic alliances. For 2026, nickel pricing will remain sensitive to regulatory enforcement and global EV demand.
