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| HRC price |
Europe HRC Market Stabilizes Amid Regulatory Shifts
The European hot-rolled coil (HRC) market declined in 2025 due to regulatory changes. Average annual prices fell 5–12%, yet Western Europe maintained €603.2/t Ex works. Mid-December offers rose to €620/t Ex works, marking the highest level since June. Regulatory uncertainty, including CBAM and protective trade measures, slowed imports and favored domestic producers. Limited supply of certain steel grades and CO₂ quota shortages reinforced price support. Despite symbolic price hikes by ArcelorMittal, buyers remained cautious, securing small volumes amid residual import stocks.
Southern Europe experienced a sharper drop, with imported HRC averaging €512.7/t CIF, down 12.1% year-on-year. Italian prices fell 7% to €578.4/t Ex works. Market stabilization occurred gradually, not through demand recovery but through regulatory influence and strategic production controls. In 2026, HRC prices in the EU are expected to remain elevated yet volatile, supported by full CBAM implementation and trade defense regimes, while weak industrial demand may limit growth.
US and China Show Divergent HRC Trends
In the US, HRC prices surged 11.1% to $949.4/t Ex works in 2025, reflecting consistent domestic pricing by Nucor and other mills. Spot prices reached $1020/t Ex works, supported by strategic capacity shutdowns, lower service center inventories, and controlled imports. Demand remained selective, favoring galvanized and cold-rolled products. Market participants anticipate continued price support from infrastructure projects, pipe manufacturing, and semiconductor sector growth, although excess capacity may constrain further increases.
Conversely, China’s HRC market dropped 9.8% to $477/t FOB. Spot market activity slowed, while futures gained short-term momentum due to supply restriction rumors and rising input costs. Export competition and weak domestic consumption limited price growth. New export declaration and licensing rules in 2026 may reduce export volumes, supporting prices, but domestic demand weakness and competitive pressure are likely to maintain volatility.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The HRC market shows a clear regional divergence: regulatory policies support EU prices, strategic mill actions bolster the US, while China faces structural domestic and export pressures. In 2026, price volatility will persist, with CBAM and export licensing shaping market flows. Strategic supply management and selective demand recovery remain key indicators for market participants.
