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| EV battery metals market |
Global EV Sales Drive Metal Demand
The EV battery metals market faces significant oversupply despite strong electric vehicle demand. Global EV sales reached 18.5 million vehicles in the first 11 months of 2025, growing 21% year-on-year. Meanwhile, China accounted for 62% of total EV sales, reinforcing its role as the dominant driver of battery technology innovation. Consequently, demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt continues, yet not all metals equally benefit from current market trends.
LFP Chemistry Shifts the Market
China leads in lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery adoption, which is safer and cheaper than nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) alternatives. LFP accounted for 48% of global EV batteries last year, and Macquarie Bank projects it could reach 65% by 2029. In contrast, nickel and cobalt face chronic oversupply. LME nickel stocks reached 338,900 tons, pressuring prices below $15,000 per ton. Congo’s cobalt export quotas may create future supply shocks, yet automakers remain cautious due to ethical and price volatility concerns.
Lithium Holds Dominance, But Challenges Loom
Lithium remains central to the EV battery metals market, with deployment increasing 25% year-on-year. However, Chinese firm CATL’s development of sodium-ion batteries challenges lithium’s dominance. Sodium-ion technology could capture up to half of LFP battery demand at lower costs. At the same time, lithium benefits from rapid growth in grid storage applications, where global installations surged 38% year-on-year. Meanwhile, copper and aluminum maintain essential roles in EV wiring and lightweight vehicle frames.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The EV battery metals market is entering a phase of selective demand consolidation. Lithium retains strength, yet nickel and cobalt face price pressure due to oversupply and shifting chemistry. Policy shifts and technological innovation will increasingly determine which metals dominate the next decade of electrification.
