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| Critical minerals market |
Global Trade Drives Mineral Supply
The critical minerals market increasingly relies on global trade, with over 60% of demand met internationally. This dependence exposes supply chains to geopolitical tensions, export restrictions, and refining bottlenecks. Meanwhile, copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, and rare earths underpin electrification, digital infrastructure, and advanced manufacturing. Therefore, producers and consumers must monitor international policies closely to manage risks and ensure stable supply flows.
Electrification and Industrial Demand Surge
Electric vehicles and clean energy technologies are driving strong growth in the critical minerals market. Copper demand alone is projected to rise from 200,000 tonnes in 2020 to 3.4 million tonnes by 2035. Lithium and nickel are expanding tenfold due to batteries and energy storage systems. In contrast, cobalt and rare earth elements grow steadily, reflecting slower adoption rates. As a result, sectors like AI, semiconductors, and data centers intensify competition for the same minerals.
Policy Measures and Strategic Planning
Countries have issued over 600 policies targeting critical minerals supply chains since 2020. Export controls, domestic processing mandates, and strategic planning accelerate, while sustainability-focused regulations are also rising. OECD nations incentivize exploration, refining, and recycling, whereas major producers prioritize upstream investment. However, market-distorting interventions risk increasing price volatility unless cross-border coordination and transparent markets are ensured.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The critical minerals market faces structural vulnerabilities amid rising electrification demand. Copper, nickel, and lithium shortages are likely by the mid-2030s. Coordinated international policies and strategic recycling will be crucial to stabilize supply and support circular economy initiatives.
