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| Cobalt |
Surge in Cobalt Spending Amid Congo Export Quotas
Cobalt spending by automakers surged 43% year-on-year despite ongoing thrifting efforts. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which supplies 80% of global cobalt, imposed export quotas replacing the previous ban. These quotas limit cobalt exports to 87,000 tonnes annually, roughly half of 2024’s total. Consequently, cobalt sulfate prices in China jumped over 120% since early 2025, averaging $7,775 per tonne in September. This price rise affects battery metal procurement costs globally, especially for electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers relying on cobalt-rich chemistries.
EV Battery Market Shifts and Automaker Spending Patterns
Despite cobalt price spikes, demand for cobalt in EV batteries remains robust. Automakers balance thrifting strategies with cobalt-intensive nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) battery chemistries. Volkswagen leads cobalt spending with $150.5 million year-to-date, driven by a 45% increase in electric and plug-in hybrid sales. Geely and Tesla follow, spending $106.2 million and $94.1 million respectively, reflecting varied battery strategies. Tesla’s growing use of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, which reduce cobalt dependence, explains its lower cobalt spending compared to rivals.
Market Outlook: Price Volatility and Battery Chemistry Trends
Cobalt prices are likely to remain elevated due to DRC’s quota policy and sustained demand from high-performance EV models. However, substitution trends and thrifting efforts persist, especially with rising LFP battery adoption. German luxury automakers BMW and Mercedes-Benz increased cobalt spending by 47% and 37%, favoring NCM chemistries. Meanwhile, BYD’s all-LFP lineup grants cost advantages amid rising lithium prices. Overall, cobalt demand dynamics reflect a complex interplay of supply constraints, evolving battery technologies, and shifting automaker strategies.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The DRC export quotas tighten cobalt supply, driving battery metal prices upward and affecting global EV supply chains. Automakers face balancing cost pressures with technological shifts toward cobalt substitution. This situation reinforces the need for sustainable sourcing and recycling in the battery metals sector.
