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| China Steel Production |
Decline in Chinese Steel Production Amid Weak Demand
China’s steel production dropped sharply to 73.49 million tons in September 2025, down 4.6% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month. This decline marks the fourth consecutive monthly decrease, driven primarily by weaker domestic demand and seasonal factors. As a result, total steel output from January to September fell 2.9% compared to the previous year, reaching 746.25 million tons. These figures come from the National Bureau of Statistics of China and were reported by SteelOrbis.
Pig Iron and Rolled Steel Output Show Mixed Trends
Pig iron smelting in September declined 2.4% year-on-year to 66.05 million tons, with a monthly drop of 5.4%. Conversely, rolled steel production totaled 124.21 million tons, down 5.1% annually but slightly up 1.2% compared to August. Over the first nine months, pig iron output decreased 1.1% year-on-year, whereas rolled steel output increased 5.4% to 1.103 billion tons. These mixed trends reflect adjustments in production strategies amid fluctuating market conditions and scrap metal availability.
Outlook for 2024 and Recycling Market Implications
Chinese steelmakers are expected to produce approximately 1.005 billion tons in 2024, marking a five-year low and likely the last year exceeding 1 billion tons. This reduction signals structural changes in China’s steel industry. Consequently, scrap metal demand will be affected globally, influencing prices and supply chains. However, early October showed signs of recovery with increased daily production at major enterprises, suggesting potential market stabilization.
ScrapInsight Commentary
China’s steel production decline signals tighter scrap metal supply, pressuring global scrap prices. Policymakers should monitor regulatory impacts on recycling efficiency amid shifting demand. The move supports circular economy goals but challenges steelmakers balancing supply and environmental targets.
