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| Deutsche Bank |
Central bank demand and political risk drive bullish outlook for gold in 2026
Deutsche Bank has revised its gold price forecast to $4,000/oz by 2026, citing intensified central bank accumulation, a declining US dollar, and heightened political uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s future independence. This marks an 8% increase from the bank’s earlier estimate of $3,700, reflecting growing investor conviction in gold’s role as a macroeconomic hedge.
Geopolitical instability and Fed independence raise investor caution
Political volatility in the US has re-emerged as a key risk factor. Deutsche Bank analysts, led by Michael Hsueh, emphasized that potential interference with the Federal Reserve—especially amid changes to the Federal Open Market Committee—may undermine market confidence. Former President Donald Trump’s previous challenges to Fed autonomy have resurfaced in investor calculations, especially ahead of the 2024 election cycle.
Meanwhile, a weakening US dollar has further boosted gold’s relative attractiveness. The greenback has hit its lowest level since July, intensifying capital flows toward bullion. As a result, gold has already surged over 41% year-to-date, outperforming traditional asset classes like the S&P 500.
Central bank purchases accelerate, led by China
Central banks remain the most aggressive buyers in the gold market. Deutsche Bank noted that official sector gold purchases have doubled compared to the 2011–2021 average. China, in particular, has emerged as the leading buyer, as it seeks to diversify reserves amid growing geopolitical decoupling. This structural demand shift is a key pillar in the bullish outlook.
However, the bank warned of possible headwinds. Strong equity market returns could reduce safe-haven demand, and if clarity emerges around US trade or immigration policies, gold’s momentum may slow. Even so, Goldman Sachs recently suggested that gold could approach $5,000/oz if just 1% of US private investors reallocate holdings from Treasuries to gold—a scenario underscoring latent upside potential.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Deutsche Bank’s $4,000 gold forecast reflects deepening structural shifts in reserve strategy and investor psychology. Sustained central bank demand, particularly from China, reinforces bullion’s role in de-dollarization. While political risk amplifies near-term volatility, the long-term trajectory supports gold’s strategic value in diversified portfolios.
