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| Uncontrolled ferrous scrap exports |
Ferrous Scrap Exports Threaten Ukraine’s Industrial Recovery
Uncontrolled ferrous scrap exports are draining Ukraine’s economy and industrial capacity. According to Metinvest COO Olexander Myronenko, each ton of exported scrap costs Ukraine $800–900 in lost foreign currency revenues. As of mid-2025, monthly scrap exports surged from 4,000 tons at war’s outset to over 50,000 tons, mainly bypassing domestic processing.
Meanwhile, these exports deprive Ukraine of value-added manufacturing, tax revenue, and employment growth. If processed domestically, the same scrap could support national steelmakers, enhance GDP, and feed downstream industries such as construction, automotive, and infrastructure. This rapid rise in exports now jeopardizes the financial stability of Ukraine's industrial base.
Poland Emerges as Scrap Transit Route to Turkey
In contrast, recent data exposes Poland’s role as a re-export hub. From January to July 2025, Ukraine exported 248,340 tons of ferrous scrap, a 66.4% YoY increase. Of this, 208,040 tons went to Poland, followed by smaller shipments to Greece, Bulgaria, and Germany. This scrap often heads from Poland to Turkish steelmakers, effectively circumventing the €180/ton EU export duty.
Poland’s scrap exports to Turkey rose sharply, from 228,000 tons in 2023 to 529,000 tons in 2024. Ukrainian scrap inflows into Poland also soared—from 15,600 tons in 2022 to 251,000 tons in 2024, confirming a strategic shift in regional flows. This behavior highlights regulatory gaps and points to growing supply chain arbitrage in the European ferrous scrap market.
Strategic Resource or Export Commodity?
As global decarbonization accelerates, scrap is now a strategic raw material, not just an export good. Study forecasts that export barriers will increase globally, compelling nations to secure domestic scrap supply for green steel production. Unlike iron ore, scrap cannot be replenished rapidly, making local availability crucial for cost-effective and low-emission steel.
Therefore, Ukraine must prioritize finished steel exports over raw scrap sales. This shift supports local steel mills, some of Ukraine’s largest taxpayers, and boosts industrial self-sufficiency. In today’s market, green transformation starts not in the furnace—but in smart scrap policy.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Ukraine’s growing scrap outflows represent both an economic loss and a policy blind spot. Without effective controls, Ukraine risks hollowing out its industrial base for short-term gains. Over the next 12 months, expect rising domestic and EU pressure to treat ferrous scrap as a strategic input—fueling price stabilization but also regulatory tightening.
