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| Hot Rolled Coil Market |
China Records Temporary Price Spike on Speculative Factors
In July 2025, the global hot-rolled coil (HRC) market exhibited contrasting trends across major regions. The European market saw continued price declines due to oversupply and sluggish demand. Meanwhile, the US market experienced a seasonal price dip amid cautious buying. In contrast, China recorded a notable price surge driven by speculative rumors and inventory drawdowns, despite weak real demand.
In the European Union, hot-rolled coil prices fell by 5.2% in Western Europe and 3.2% in Italy, closing at €545/t and €527.5/t respectively. Seasonal construction slowdowns and weak automotive activity reduced demand. Despite this, ArcelorMittal raised prices twice in Northern Europe to €610/t delivered, signaling a possible future recovery influenced by expected EU trade measures and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). However, most buyers remain skeptical, favoring selective imports from Asia, Turkey, and North Africa.
The US market continued to soften, with HRC prices declining 1.7% month-on-month to $970/ton. Key producers like Nucor lowered base offers twice, reaching $890 per short ton. Market activity remained subdued due to the typical summer lull, high project costs, and a cautious buyer stance. Some deals occurred below market averages at $835/ton, yet industry participants anticipate a price bottom in August-September. A price rebound is expected in the fall, driven by demand growth from infrastructure and energy sectors.
China’s hot-rolled coil prices increased 7.1% month-on-month to $490/ton. This jump followed rumors of a government-led poor area reconstruction program. However, real consumption declined amid user resistance to rapid price hikes. Meanwhile, falling inventories and production constraints supported price growth. Export markets showed cautious buying, and prices slightly corrected after a major political meeting cooled steel and coking coal quotations on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. The future Chinese market outlook hinges on government infrastructure investment and exporter competitiveness.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Global hot-rolled coil prices face downward pressure in Europe and the US, reflecting weak demand and oversupply. However, China’s price rise driven by speculative factors signals potential volatility. Upcoming EU trade policies and US infrastructure spending could support demand recovery later this year, while China’s market remains sensitive to policy clarity and export dynamics.
