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| EU HRC |
EU HRC Import Quota Utilization Hits Historic Lows
EU HRC import levels have dropped to their lowest in several years, raising concerns across the bloc’s steel value chain. According to official EU data, less than 780,000 tonnes of hot-rolled coil (HRC) import quotas were utilized in the current quarter. This represents a sharp decline from the 1.6–1.7 million tonnes seen in the same period over the past three years.
Turkey still holds around 140,000 tonnes in available quota, which could be fully used based on recent shipments. However, even if fully utilized, overall EU HRC import volume remains significantly below historical norms. In contrast, countries such as Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam, once key exporters, have seen their access curtailed due to anti-dumping measures.
Weak EU Demand and Trade Policies Suppress HRC Imports
The EU HRC import slump is driven by a combination of trade defense mechanisms and structural demand weakness. Reduced "other countries" quotas, plus anti-dumping duties, particularly impacted former major suppliers. According to Eurostat, Egypt, Japan, Vietnam, and India accounted for over 40% of HRC imports in 2024, but their combined share fell to just 7.5% in April 2025.
Meanwhile, Eurofer is pushing for a 50% cut in HRC import quotas beginning January 2026. The association, backed by 11 EU member states, wants stricter rules: no country exemptions and a 50% out-of-quota tariff. These measures aim to reduce import penetration from 30% to 15%, effectively capping annual HRC imports at around 4–4.5 million tonnes, down from 8.5 million tonnes in 2024.
Exempt Countries Fill the Gap, but Risks Remain
In contrast, exempt countries—most notably Ukraine and Indonesia—are increasing shipments into the EU. Ukraine consistently exports over 100,000 tonnes/month, while Indonesia shipped 320,000 tonnes of EU HRC imports in just May and June. Low pricing from a key Indonesian mill raised concerns about potential dumping, although trade sources note that a full year of import data is usually needed to launch formal investigations.
If safeguard measures expire, the European Commission may introduce new instruments that extend beyond WTO rules. In that case, all countries, including currently exempt ones, could fall under the scope of future trade restrictions. This uncertainty casts a shadow over future EU HRC import strategies for both buyers and exporters.
ScrapInsight Commentary
EU HRC import quota usage has collapsed under the weight of protectionism and stagnant demand. While Indonesia and Ukraine offer temporary relief, looming policy shifts may curb even exempt flows. Traders should prepare for a constrained import landscape from 2026, with possible price volatility as domestic supply tightens.
