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| Square Billet |
Square billet prices stabilized in June across key regional markets, reflecting persistent weak export demand. Most markets saw minimal fluctuations, with average price corrections not exceeding $5 per ton. Despite downward pressures, prices held due to limited trade activity rather than strong buyer engagement.
Regional Markets Reflect Mixed Dynamics
In the Black Sea region, square billet prices remained firm at $433–435/t FOB. This level appeals to Turkish buyers, given higher domestic offers. Kardemir, Turkey’s leading producer, reduced its offer by $15/t in June to $485–495/t (excl. VAT). However, domestic prices still outpace import options.
Meanwhile, Tangshan in China saw June billet offers between $402–406/t. Chinese producers face weak local demand, leading to rising inventories and temporary mill shutdowns. CISA has urged authorities to limit billet exports to stabilize the domestic market.
In contrast, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia saw no significant price movement. Saudi ex-works prices held at $500–503/t, while Indonesian CFR offers ranged from $443–445/t. The highest pricing appeared in Italy, where ex-works billet prices rose slightly in May to $562/t.
Market Forecasts Suggest Mild Recovery by 2026
In May, square billet prices declined by $10/t, reversing mid-month gains. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) projects average FOB Ukraine billet prices to fall 5.2% in 2025, reaching $478/t. However, a moderate rebound is expected—2.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, lifting prices to $502.5/t.
As a result, while current square billet prices reflect sluggish demand, long-term outlooks suggest gradual recovery driven by restrained supply and post-2025 market recalibration.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Flat pricing trends in square billet markets show global oversupply and stagnant demand. Key Asian and MENA regions demonstrate low trade urgency, while European premiums remain isolated. Industry players should watch for demand recovery signals post-2025 amid restrained capacity and possible export controls in China.
