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| Brazilian pig iron |
🇧🇷 Brazilian Pig Iron Exports Surge on US Tariff Concerns
Average prices for Brazilian pig iron dropped by $10/t in June despite a sharp rise in US-bound shipments. According to Kallanish, FOB export prices fell from $420/t in late May to $410/t by June 20. Market volatility stems from increased US demand and anticipation of new import tariffs.
Regional Trade Dynamics Shift as US and Turkish Markets React
However, demand surged in the US amid fears of a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods starting August 1, as announced by President Donald Trump. As a result, June exports jumped 32% month-over-month to 358,000 tons, with 303,000 tons shipped to the US at $428/t. This spike in demand helped stabilize prices, despite broader bearish trends.
In contrast, Turkey imported 245,400 tons of pig iron in May, up 83% year-over-year. Russian pig iron accounted for 72% of these volumes, priced at $360/t. Meanwhile, Ukrainian pig iron exports to Turkey rose to 44,200 tons, priced higher at $413/t. The influx of lower-cost Russian pig iron reflects a strategic shift following the exhaustion of Russia’s 2025 EU quotas.
Supply Trends and Global Output Affect Market Sentiment
Meanwhile, global pig iron production declined by 0.3% year-on-year from January to May 2025. China produced 362.7 million tons (+0.1%), India 63.6 million tons (+7.5%), and Russia 24.9 million tons (-1%). Brazilian suppliers are optimistic about July price recovery, driven by sustained US demand and expected trade friction.
However, FOB Black Sea prices declined by $5/t in June, indicating regional oversupply pressure. Notably, at the end of May, Brazilian pig iron prices had already dropped $30/t due to looming US tariffs and a 10% domestic financial transaction tax.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Brazil’s pig iron price correction reflects tariff uncertainty and US-centric trade flows. Should the US impose 50% tariffs, short-term prices may spike before correcting on reduced competitiveness. Turkish imports show that price-sensitive buyers are already shifting toward Russian and Ukrainian supply. This underscores the importance of adaptive sourcing strategies in a tightening regulatory climate.
