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| Samarium |
New restrictions target samarium, terbium, dysprosium; US and Japan brace for supply crunch
China has imposed sweeping new export controls on a wide range of rare earth elements, including samarium, terbium, dysprosium, yttrium, and key downstream products like NdFeB and samarium-cobalt magnets. The restrictions—effective immediately—are framed under China’s dual-use control regime, citing national security concerns and international norms.
However, global observers view the move as retaliation for recent US tariffs, escalating the resource nationalism shaping today’s metals markets. The Ministry of Commerce now requires exporters to provide end-user and end-use documentation, with immediate suspension if either changes. While the official permit process is pegged at 45 days, delays are expected—especially for shipments bound for the US, Japan, or the EU.
Global Markets Face Tightening Supply and Rising Costs
China supplies more than 90% of the world’s rare earths, particularly the heavy and medium rare earths critical for defense, clean energy, and electronics. Similar controls on gallium, germanium, and graphite in recent years caused prices to surge, creating volatile market conditions and permit backlogs. The antimony market, for example, remains elevated in Europe due to prolonged approval timelines.
The new export regime could dramatically tighten supply of heavy rare earths. Traders anticipate that NdFeB and samarium-cobalt magnet prices will increase globally as non-Chinese producers raise prices to reflect higher demand and lower Chinese output. Supply-chain-sensitive sectors—like automotive electrification, wind turbines, and missile systems—are particularly exposed.
US and Japan at High Risk of Supply Disruption
The United States faces a sharp shortfall in heavy rare earths, especially dysprosium and terbium, with Lynas Malaysia not expected to deliver separated output until 2025. The US currently lacks commercial-scale separation capacity for these materials.
Japan, a major importer of dysprosium and terbium for magnet production, is likewise highly vulnerable. Japanese buyers are reportedly seeking alternative suppliers, but new mines in Australia, Canada, and Vietnam remain years away from meaningful output.
Meanwhile, Chinese imports of US rare earth ores are expected to decline due to Beijing’s new 34% retaliatory tariff, although analysts say this will have little impact domestically, as China increasingly sources its raw material needs from Myanmar, Laos, and domestic mines.
ScrapInsight Editorial View:
China's rare earth export curbs reinforce its dominance over critical material supply chains. As with antimony and gallium, permit bottlenecks and strategic ambiguity will drive volatility in magnet metals. This move exposes Western dependence and accelerates the race to onshore rare earth refining, especially for heavy REEs. Expect price inflation, stockpiling, and policy responses as the US, EU, and Japan scramble to diversify.
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