IEA Warns of Growing Risks in Critical Minerals Supply for Energy Security

IEA 

New report highlights rising concentration, export controls, and slowing investment

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised fresh alarms over the growing risks to global critical minerals supply chains, citing increased market concentration and the widening reach of export restrictions in its newly released Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025.

The report reveals that the share of the top three producing countries for minerals like copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earths has risen to 86% in 2024, up from 82% in 2020. This concentration is even more acute in smelting and processing, making global markets more vulnerable to supply shocks from geopolitical conflicts, trade disruptions, or natural disasters.

Despite the escalating demand—lithium alone saw a 30% demand surge in 2024—the report warns that investment growth in critical minerals is slowing, dropping to just 5% in 2024, compared to 14% in 2023. Exploration efforts have stalled, and financing for startups has weakened, halting momentum that had been building since 2020.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol emphasized the stakes:

"In today’s world of escalating geopolitical conflicts, critical minerals have become a top priority for global energy and economic security."

The report singles out copper as a market facing a serious threat. With power grid expansions underway globally, copper demand is set to soar, but current project forecasts suggest a 30% shortfall by 2035.

Export restrictions now affect 55% of energy-related strategic minerals, extending beyond raw ore to include processed materials and technologies, threatening supply security across advanced manufacturing and aerospace sectors.

The IEA also released updates to its Critical Minerals Data Explorer, a digital platform offering forecasts and policy analysis. For the first time, the report covers the strategic importance of minerals for high-tech industries in addition to energy.

New Battery Chemistries and High-Tech Sectors Still Vulnerable

While alternative battery chemistries like LFP (lithium iron phosphate) and sodium-ion are gaining attention, the IEA warns they still face high supply chain risks, especially in terms of raw material availability and processing capacity.

Analysis of 20 energy-related strategic minerals reveals that despite their relatively small market size, supply disruptions can still have a severe economic impact. Prices of 15 of these minerals fluctuate more than crude oil, underscoring their market sensitivity.

"These new analyses review the stakes and the measures needed to enhance the resilience and diversity of critical minerals, which are key to ensuring reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy in the 21st century," Birol added.