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| Brazilian steel imports |
Brazilian steel imports are projected to fall by 13.2 percent to 5.56 million tonnes in 2026. Industry association Aco Brasil attributes this significant decline directly to strengthened trade protection measures. Furthermore, imports of rolled steel products will drop by 15.1 percent to 4.88 million tonnes. Therefore, domestic steelmakers expect reduced competition from low-cost foreign flat steel shipments this year.
Anti-Dumping Duties and Tariff-Quota Systems
Brazil imposed definitive anti-dumping duties exceeding 600 dollars per tonne on Chinese cold-rolled steel. Additionally, government authorities applied tariffs up to 709.63 dollars on Chinese coated flat steel products. Meanwhile, a tariff-quota system imposes a 25 percent duty on steel volumes exceeding set quotas. As a result, higher trade barriers drastically limit foreign mill shipments of Brazilian steel imports.
Muted Domestic Consumption and Output
Domestic steel sales will rise by just 0.2 percent to 21.27 million tonnes during 2026. In contrast, apparent steel consumption will decrease by 2.7 percent to 26.08 million tonnes overall. However, crude steel production will hold flat at 33.38 million tonnes despite lower foreign competition. Consequently, the decline in Brazilian steel imports will stabilize domestic market share for local producers.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Brazil’s aggressive trade defense measures have effectively curtailed Chinese steel imports, protecting local steelmakers from margin erosion. However, stagnant domestic steel consumption limits immediate upside for domestic crude production and scrap demand. Long-term market recovery will depend on industrial manufacturing growth and infrastructure spending within South America's largest economy.
