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| Steel Scrap |
JISF projects 873 million tons of global scrap by 2050
Global steel scrap collection is projected to reach 873 million tons by 2050, reflecting a 36% increase from 2020. However, the forecast is 31 million tons lower than previous estimates due to slower demand in China and developed economies. Meanwhile, emerging markets show stronger growth, driving long-term upward trends in scrap generation and collection.
The revised forecast indicates a geographic shift in scrap supply toward developing countries. China’s projected collection falls to 311 million tons, and developed economies to 193 million tons. In contrast, developing countries, excluding China, are expected to generate 370 million tons. As a result, steelmakers must adapt to evolving scrap sources for efficient electric arc furnace operations.
Despite fluctuations, over 85% of global scrap will continue to feed the steel industry. Meanwhile, 2024 data shows scrap consumption at 460.6 million tons, down 1% from 2023. Therefore, steel producers should monitor regional scrap flows closely, as shifts may impact pricing, recycling strategies, and circular economy integration in steel production.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The global scrap forecast highlights the growing role of developing countries in steel recycling. Consequently, scrap traders and electric arc furnace operators may need to adjust sourcing strategies. Long-term, shifting scrap flows will influence metal pricing and reinforce circular economy practices.
