 |
| Indian Rebar |
Surge in Indian Rebar Prices Amid Geopolitical Tensions
The ongoing US-Iran conflict has sharply increased Indian scrap-based rebar demand. Domestic buyers began restocking as they anticipated further price rises due to energy cost pressures. Meanwhile, Brent crude surged 13%, raising freight and transit costs for steelmakers.
A long products producer in Jalna reported input costs rising by Rs1,700/t ($18.50/t) over two days. Consequently, base rebar prices jumped from Rs43,700/t to Rs45,500/t. Overall, 12mm rebar prices in Jalna climbed Rs1,000/t since the conflict began, highlighting market sensitivity to geopolitical shocks.
Scrap and DRI Demand Strengthens Secondary Steel Markets
As a result, secondary steel markets, relying on scrap and direct-reduced iron (DRI), witnessed renewed activity. Buyers rushed to secure supplies amid uncertainty. Billet prices also increased to Rs44,000/t ex-works Mandi-Gobindgarh, up from Rs42,800/t last week.
Indian west coast mills increasingly substituted scrap with DRI to manage feedstock costs, driving up imports from the Middle East. Integrated primary steel producers also raised hot-rolled coil (HRC) and rebar prices by Rs1,000–1,500/t at March’s start. Retail suppliers followed, offering cut-to-length rebar at Rs55,000/t ex-Mumbai.
Export Risks and Domestic Market Pressure
Prolonged conflict threatens Iran-origin DRI supply and may restrict Middle East exports. Consequently, Indian mills might shift more steel to domestic channels, intensifying price pressure. For instance, UAE-bound shipments were paused due to maritime safety concerns near the Strait of Hormuz.
Overall, Indian finished steel exports to the UAE increased 20% YoY to 424,700t in the first ten months of FY2025–26. However, uncertainties persist, and participants expect market clarity towards week’s end after the Holi festival.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Geopolitical tensions are driving Indian scrap-based rebar demand and pushing secondary steel prices higher. Energy cost surges and DRI supply disruptions could sustain this trend. Policymakers should monitor export restrictions, as domestic price pressure may persist through mid-2026.
