 |
| Global Hot-rolled coil prices |
European HRC Market Strengthened Despite CBAM Concerns
Hot-Rolled Coil Prices in Europe surged in February, reaching levels not seen since May 2025. Offers in Western Europe increased to €665/t ex-works, up 7.3% from January, while Italian prices rose to €650/t (+4%). Meanwhile, Southern European imports climbed 5% to €525/t CIF. However, warehouse stocks formed before CBAM implementation limited real transactions. As a result, producers tested buyers’ willingness to accept higher prices through shorter offer periods. At the same time, long-term contract negotiations in Germany established a €45-60/t higher base, reinforcing spot expectations.
US Prices Hit Multi-Year Highs Amid Supply Disruptions
In contrast, the United States experienced Hot-Rolled Coil Prices above $1,000/t for two consecutive months. Producers, led by Nucor, consistently raised offers by $5/t weekly and an additional $10/t at February’s end. Supply disruptions from winter storms, shipment delays, and slab shortages further supported prices. Meanwhile, import offers from Asia remained limited due to logistics and customs duties. Consequently, the market maintained upward momentum, although accumulated service center stocks may restrain further growth in Q2.
Chinese Market Shows Limited Increase with Weak Domestic Demand
Meanwhile, China’s Hot-Rolled Coil Prices rose marginally to $472/t FOB, only $2/t above year-end levels. Domestic demand remained weak ahead of the Spring Festival, and inventories increased. Futures on the Shanghai Exchange declined to quarterly lows, while export prices stayed stable due to Middle East supply agreements. However, mild post-holiday recovery may be constrained by ongoing soft demand. Therefore, China’s market contributes minimally to the global price surge despite external competitive support.
ScrapInsight Commentary
European and US HRC price increases are supported by strategic pricing and supply constraints. Meanwhile, China’s weak domestic demand limits regional influence. Short-term stability is expected, but CBAM effects, seasonal stocks, and global logistics will shape Q2 dynamics.
