 |
| Iron ore prices |
Seasonal and Fundamental Factors Pressure Iron Ore Prices
Iron ore prices have fallen sharply since early 2026. Seasonal slowdowns and excess supply in China pressured the market. Meanwhile, Qingdao KORE 62% Fe quotations dropped to $100.26/t CFR, the lowest since August 2025. Restocking before the Lunar New Year provided temporary support; however, weak construction activity limited price recovery. Futures markets initially suggested optimism, yet fundamental indicators signaled declining demand.
Chinese Steelmakers’ Reduced Purchasing and Inventory Surplus
As a result, steel mills restricted iron ore purchases due to weak margins and cautious financial policies. Port inventories in China approached multi-year highs. Additionally, expectations of environmental restrictions and slower pig iron recovery amplified selling pressure. Meanwhile, new high-quality shipments from the Simandou project reinforced concerns over growing global supply. Traders closed positions during the holiday period, intensifying short-term price declines.
Medium-Term Outlook for Iron Ore Prices
In contrast, post-holiday mill activity may trigger a technical price rebound. However, fundamental weakness persists due to high inventories and slow construction. Analysts project iron ore prices to fluctuate between $95-105/t CFR in the coming months. Further declines remain possible if Chinese steel demand stays subdued. Overall, oversupply and cautious market sentiment dominate the current iron ore market environment.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Global iron ore prices face sustained pressure from high Chinese inventories and weak construction demand. Simandou shipments increase supply, limiting price recovery. Steelmakers may shift to recycled scrap or optimize stock management to mitigate costs.
