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| Japanese ferrous scrap exports |
Japanese Ferrous Scrap Exports Show Monthly Decline
Japan scrap exports fell by 21% month-on-month to 590,000t in November. However, total exports from January to November reached 7.01 million tons, up 21% year-on-year. Vietnam remained the largest buyer despite a 19% volume drop, as prolonged rainy season slowed construction activity. Meanwhile, Bangladesh doubled imports compared with last year, yet December-loading cargoes faced political and payment uncertainties.
Domestic Prices and Currency Influence Export Volumes
Tokyo Steel raised domestic scrap collection prices by ¥4,000/t over October and November. In contrast, Argus H2 FOB Japan assessment increased only ¥2,200/t. Consequently, Japanese domestic prices exceeded export levels, discouraging outflows. The yen’s depreciation against the US dollar further strengthened domestic pricing. This combination made overseas buyers less willing to pay higher scrap costs, particularly during Asia’s sluggish steel season.
Outlook for December and Market Implications
Japan scrap exports in December may decline further, as global steel demand remains weak. South Korea saw a small month-on-month increase due to a low base, but prime-grade scrap sales remained sporadic. Therefore, the overall Japanese ferrous scrap market faces a short-term slowdown. As a result, exporters and mills must navigate domestic price rallies and fluctuating foreign demand carefully.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Japan’s November scrap export decline highlights the sensitivity of global ferrous scrap flows to currency fluctuations and regional steel demand. Exporters may face further downward pressure in December, while domestic pricing policies aim to stabilize local supply. Market participants should anticipate continued volatility through early 2026.
