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| Brazil Steel Market |
Anti-Dumping Policies Critical for Brazil’s Steel Industry
Brazil’s steel market outlook for 2026 depends on the timely enforcement of anti-dumping measures. Carlos Loureiro of INDA emphasizes that delays may create pessimistic scenarios, especially amid political considerations and China trade dynamics. Meanwhile, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC) must meet deadlines to ensure policy effectiveness.
Steel imports are rising despite domestic production concerns. Aço Brasil forecasts a 2.2% decline in 2026 steel output, while imports of rolled products could jump 10%, reaching 6.324 million tonnes. In contrast, total steel imports may increase by 3.9% year on year. Loureiro warns that without protective measures, Brazil risks ceding market share to Chinese producers.
Market Performance and Inventory Trends
Purchases within INDA’s network fell 7.5% in November but rose 7.5% year on year. Meanwhile, sales of flat steel products dropped 12% month on month yet increased 5.1% versus last November. Inventories slightly grew to 1,079,700 tonnes, maintaining a 3.5-month turnover. Import volumes rose 5.9% month on month and 29% year on year, including hot-rolled, cold-rolled, galvanized, and coated steel products.
Markets reports Brazilian domestic hot-rolled coil prices at 3,650-3,950 Reais ($673-728) per tonne, slightly lower than last month. Imported hot-rolled coil in South America averaged $515-530 per tonne, up $5 weekly, reflecting persistent market tension.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Brazil’s steel market faces rising imports and political uncertainty, making anti-dumping measures crucial for domestic stability. Inventory trends suggest cautious purchasing, while price volatility may affect scrap and secondary steel markets. Protective policies could support local producers and mitigate Chinese competition.
