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| Recycled steel |
Weather Disruptions and Domestic Price Increases
Severe weather in the U.S. disrupted construction and demolition flows, prompting higher bids for recycled steel. As a result, U.S. mills reported $10-per-ton increases for prime grades and up to $20 for HMS and structural scrap. Meanwhile, domestic steel prices rose, allowing EAF mills to maintain margins despite higher scrap costs. Therefore, weather-driven bottlenecks played a critical role in late-year price recovery.
Export Market Trends and Global Supply Factors
In contrast, exports of recycled steel initially lagged in 2025, yet Turkey and India saw increased demand by December. Bulk Nos. 1 and 2 HMS cargoes leaving New York rose from $305 to $331.25 per metric ton within a month. However, low-cost Chinese billets and slabs pressured these markets throughout 2025. The EU, Mexico, and other importers introduced measures to control Chinese exports, while China implemented export quotas starting January 2026.
Chinese Production and Future Trade Implications
Meanwhile, China’s November 2025 crude steel production fell 10.8% year-over-year to 69.9 million metric tons. This decline followed reductions from October and September 2025, signaling potential tighter global supply. As a result, steelmakers and recyclers will monitor how China’s export quotas affect trade flows. Therefore, recycled steel values may continue rising into early 2026 amid supply constraints.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Supply bottlenecks and weather disruptions triggered late-year recycled steel price gains in the U.S. Export shifts and China’s new quotas may further tighten global supply. Analysts expect continued upward pressure on ferrous scrap into 2026.
