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| Iron ore prices |
Global Iron Ore Market Faces Seasonal and Structural Pressures
Iron ore prices weakened in early December 2025, with the Dalian Exchange falling 0.9% and Singapore Exchange down 2.3%. As a result, spot January contracts dropped to $103.3/t in Singapore and $111.12/t in Dalian. Reduced purchases by steel mills and limited trading activity caused market pressure, despite early-month support from a weak US dollar and potential rate cuts. Chinese port data shows increasing stocks and declining daily shipments, signaling weaker demand.
Chinese Steel Production and Market Dynamics
Steel production in eastern China regained profitability, stabilizing prices partially. Meanwhile, central China faces blast furnace maintenance and reduced output. Seasonal factors, including holidays, combined with structural changes, continue to pressure iron ore prices. In contrast, short-term optimism stems from expected economic measures in China and potential ore shipments from Guinea’s Simandou project in early 2026.
Fitch Forecasts and Global Supply Implications
Fitch revised iron ore price assumptions upward, citing strong global demand and higher starting prices. The 62% Fe content ore is now forecast at $100/t for 2025 and $90/t for 2026. As a result, market participants should monitor steel mill purchasing trends and port stock levels. Overall, fundamentals indicate moderate weakness, despite intermittent short-term optimism from political or economic interventions.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Iron ore prices show seasonal stagnation despite Fitch’s upward revisions. Accumulating port stocks and limited steel mill buying pressure global markets. Strategic monitoring of supply from Guinea and Chinese production trends will be critical for pricing and recycling sector planning.
