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| Copper |
Copper’s structural shortage is imminent, driven by electrification, EV adoption, and energy-transition investments.
BloombergNEF forecasts deficits from 2026, with supply unable to match rapidly rising demand.
As a result, copper markets face prolonged pressure, highlighting the need for mining investment and efficient scrap recycling.
Supply Constraints and Market Pressures
The copper structural deficit reflects production delays in Chile, Indonesia, and Peru, alongside slow permitting processes.
Meanwhile, slow capacity additions for platinum and palladium amplify near-term pressure on transition metals.
Consequently, the shortfall could reach 19 million tonnes by 2050 without new mines or increased scrap recovery.
Prices have surged 35% this year, showing tight supply and market sensitivity to geopolitical and logistical disruptions.
In contrast, mergers and capital spending by Anglo American, BHP, Glencore, Rio Tinto, Vale, and Zijin underscore copper’s strategic importance.
Therefore, market stability depends on simultaneous investment, permitting acceleration, and enhanced secondary-material collection.
Long-Term Outlook and Energy Transition Implications
Copper demand will triple by 2045 due to EVs, grid expansion, and data-center growth.
Meanwhile, graphite, lithium, cobalt, and manganese markets show varied trajectories, emphasizing critical-metal supply risks.
As a result, decarbonization strategies must integrate recycling, secondary-material utilization, and low-carbon production in clean-energy infrastructure.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The structural copper deficit highlights urgent opportunities for scrap collection and circular-metal strategies.
Recycling and secondary supply can mitigate deficits while supporting low-carbon energy goals.
Investors and policymakers should prioritize scrap infrastructure to stabilize long-term transition-metal markets.
