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| Brazil Rolled Steel Imports |
2026 Rolled Steel Imports Projected to Hit Record Levels
Brazilian steel association Aço Brasil forecasts rolled steel imports to increase 10% in 2026, reaching 6.324 million tonnes. This follows revised 2025 estimates of 5.748 million tonnes, down 11.7 percentage points from earlier projections. Chairman André Johannpeter warned that trade diversion from protectionist measures in other countries may drive additional imports into Brazil. Meanwhile, quota-tariff mechanisms and anti-dumping measures have already been implemented to safeguard domestic producers.
Domestic Steel Production and Consumption Trends
Brazil’s crude steel production is expected to fall 2.2% in 2025 to 33.129 million tonnes and decline further in 2026. Domestic sales are projected to drop 0.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. In contrast, steel exports may reach 10.234 million tonnes in 2025, a 6.4% increase from 2024, before a slight 0.6% decline in 2026. Apparent steel consumption is forecast to rise 1% in 2026 to 27.005 million tonnes, indicating that imports could occupy a significant share of domestic demand.
Employment and Global Capacity Concerns
Steelmakers cite potential job losses as a key reason for protective measures. Brazil faces challenges similar to Mexico, where government tariffs addressed employment risks. Global overcapacity remains a pressing issue, projected to reach 721 million tonnes per year by 2027. Therefore, Aço Brasil emphasizes strategic domestic safeguards to maintain industrial stability and manage excess installed capacity.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Brazil’s rolled steel import surge reflects domestic capacity constraints and global overproduction pressures. Protective tariffs aim to shield employment and stabilize local demand. The interplay between imports and domestic consumption will influence steel pricing and recycling incentives in Brazil’s circular economy.
