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| Base metals prices |
Strong Performance of Base Metals in 2025 Supports 2026 Momentum
Base metals prices 2026 are expected to remain robust following strong trends in 2025. Copper and tin reached multi-year highs due to supply constraints. Meanwhile, aluminium prices approached $3,000/t, supported by industrial and automotive demand. In contrast, lead and nickel traded sideways, reflecting weaker fundamentals. Overall, electrification, AI datacenter investments, and defence spending underpinned metal demand globally.
Regional Supply Constraints and Demand Drivers
China’s constrained aluminium capacity continues to limit meaningful supply growth. Meanwhile, automotive output, solar projects, and grid investments sustain domestic demand. In the copper market, concentrate shortages and low treatment charges have amplified refined market imbalances. Therefore, exchange prices are likely to rise further, with treatment charges remaining under pressure. Lead faces seasonal softness, but the refined market is expected to stay balanced through 2026-27.
Outlook for Zinc, Silver, and Mine Production Growth
China’s zinc surplus contrasts with global shortfalls, causing price volatility into early 2026. Silver production projects, such as Reliquias and Sorby Hills, are expected to enter operation in late 2026. Mine expansions like Aljustrel, Bunker Hill, and Gamsberg will support smelter growth. As a result, raw material supply increases will reinforce upward trends in base metals prices 2026, despite macroeconomic uncertainties.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Base metals prices 2026 are driven by persistent supply constraints and strong investment demand in electrification and AI datacenters. While China’s slow growth poses risks, regional supply imbalances support continued price appreciation. Strategic sourcing and stockpiling will remain critical for mill profitability and long-term market stability.
