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| Billet Market |
The global billet market has witnessed mixed trends in October, with regional markets showing fluctuating dynamics. While sentiment was weak at the start of the month due to challenges in China, there has been some optimism in the latter half, particularly with improving conditions in Turkey. Exporters from the Black Sea region are planning to raise prices by $2–3 per tonne, citing factors such as the strengthening ruble and increasing semi-finished product costs from China.
Black Sea Market Price Movements and Turkish Developments
In October, the average price of square billets in the Black Sea FOB market fell by $5, reaching $433 per tonne. However, billet exporters are now planning price hikes, targeting $443–447 per tonne, influenced by the ruble's strengthening and higher semi-finished product costs from China. These developments come on the heels of regulatory changes in Turkey that have impacted demand for imported billets. Specifically, Turkey's new Domestic Input Requirement (DIR) stipulates that at least 25% of raw materials and semi-finished products used in production must be sourced locally. This shift has notably affected the country's imports, leading to an increased interest in locally produced billets.
In September, Turkey imported 327,900 tonnes of billets, a 13% decrease compared to the same month last year. The country's billet imports from China doubled, now accounting for 34% of Turkey's total billet supply, highlighting China's growing market share in the region. Despite this, local production in Turkey has seen an uptick, with local billet output rising by 8.6% year-on-year to 2 million tonnes, signaling a positive shift in domestic demand.
Market Sentiment in China and the Persian Gulf
The situation in China has been less stable, with the billet market in Tangshan seeing low activity in the first half of October. This was largely driven by weak sales of finished products and production suspensions due to environmental restrictions. By mid-month, however, prices started to stabilize, supported by active sales of finished products and a recovery in steel futures prices. Overall, billet prices in Tangshan saw a modest rise of $5, reaching $419 per tonne.
In the Persian Gulf region, billet prices remained stable in October, with prices ranging between $445 and $450 per tonne (CFR). In Saudi Arabia, however, prices were slightly higher due to ongoing shortages of scrap and billet products, reaching $477–482 per tonne (Ex-Works). Meanwhile, in Indonesia, billet prices fell by $14 to $448 per tonne (CFR) in September, reflecting regional price variability.
European and Ukrainian Market Trends
In Europe, billet prices on Ex-Works terms in Italy saw a decrease of $16 in October, settling at $562 per tonne, after briefly peaking at $582 per tonne earlier in the month. Despite this, the European market remains somewhat stable overall, with some price increases noted in the first half of October. In Ukraine, average prices for steel billets are projected to decrease by 7.5% by the end of 2025, according to the National Bank of Ukraine, reaching $466.4 per tonne. Prices are forecast to gradually increase in the following years, with projections of $490.3 per tonne in 2026 and $501.1 per tonne in 2027.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The outlook for the global billet market remains uncertain, with regional variations and regulatory changes in key markets like Turkey influencing price dynamics. While price increases are expected in the Black Sea region, the sustainability of this trend remains contingent on broader market conditions, particularly in China. The continued growth of local billet production in Turkey also signals a shift towards greater self-sufficiency in the region, potentially reshaping market dynamics in the future.
