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| Copper |
Accelerating Demand Outpaces Supply: A Looming Copper Shortage
Global demand for copper is escalating at an unprecedented pace, creating what industry expert Robert Friedland describes as a potential copper crisis. He warns that within the next two decades, demand will outstrip supply, forcing humanity to mine as much copper in 18 years as it has over the past 10,000 years combined to support even modest economic growth.
Copper is pivotal to modern industry, playing a central role in sectors ranging from energy grids to military hardware. As of October 2025, copper trades at over $5 per pound—marking a 55% increase over the last five years. This surge reflects heightened demand but remains insufficient to stimulate new production investments. Friedland argues that copper prices must exceed $15,000 per tonne to justify the massive capital outlays required to build new mines.
Strategic Importance of Copper: Beyond Economics to National Security
Friedland highlights the strategic importance of copper in national defense. Beyond its role in driving economic growth, copper is essential for military technologies, such as artillery shells. “If somebody’s pointing a gun at you, you need that copper to shoot back,” he stressed earlier this year. This underlines the urgency for securing copper resources not just as an economic asset but as a national security imperative.
The crisis has sparked calls for a resurgence in U.S. copper mining, with the country facing increasing reliance on foreign sources. A lack of new mining developments over generations has exposed the vulnerability of the U.S. economy and military to copper shortages. Policy shifts, including stronger governmental support for domestic resource development, are seen as crucial to ensuring long-term supply stability and security.
The Economics of Scarcity: A Market at a Crossroads
Despite the rally in copper prices, Friedland argues that the current market prices remain insufficient to meet the challenges of new production. According to S&P Global, by 2043, copper mined to date will need to be replicated just to sustain a modest 3.5% annual global GDP growth. This shortfall presents a critical problem for the global economy.
Friedland's long-term projections suggest that copper prices could soar well beyond $15,000 per tonne, driven by the increasing demand for energy transformation technologies and national security needs. However, the industry faces a paradox—while demand for copper is "essentially infinite," there is no rational price for something that is indispensable to modern life and defense.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Robert Friedland's analysis underscores the looming copper shortage as a critical challenge for the global economy. With escalating demand and insufficient new mining projects, prices could surge to unsustainable levels. For policymakers and investors, this crisis highlights the need for strategic investments in both mining infrastructure and domestic supply chains to mitigate risks to national security and economic growth.
