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| India steel exports |
India’s steel exports surged 24% month-on-month in September 2025, reaching 1.07 million tons, the highest since March 2024. This growth in India steel exports reflects both seasonal demand and urgent restocking by the European Union ahead of stricter trade regulations. Compared to the same month in 2024, exports nearly doubled, indicating rising international reliance on Indian-origin flat carbon steel.
EU Drives Demand Spike as CBAM Deadline Approaches
Exports of flat carbon steel products rose 24% in September to 0.86 million tons, with hot-rolled coils contributing 0.41 million tons—up 50% month-on-month. As a result, the EU remained the top buyer, importing 0.6 million tons, followed by the UAE and the UK. This export pattern shows a clear trend: buyers are frontloading purchases to mitigate risks from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and potential cost increases.
In the April–September 2025 period, India's total steel exports reached 4.43 million tons, a 40% year-on-year increase. Exports of hot-rolled products rose 56%, and shipments to the EU grew 69% over the same timeframe. The CBAM effect and rising procurement costs are accelerating buying behavior across Europe.
Capacity Expansion Supports Export Ambitions
India achieved its steel production capacity goal of 205 million tons per year in FY 2024/25, according to MP Financial Advisory Services. The country aims to hit 300 million tons by FY 2030/31. However, BigMint notes that export momentum may face headwinds from evolving EU trade policies. Therefore, policy clarity will play a critical role in sustaining India's export trajectory.
ScrapInsight Commentary
India’s surge in steel exports reflects a strategic opportunity created by EU regulatory shifts, particularly CBAM. While capacity growth supports volume expansion, long-term sustainability will hinge on India's ability to navigate shifting carbon compliance costs and trade barriers. Market players should monitor Q1 2026 trends for pricing and policy signals.
