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| Goldman Sachs Iron Ore Prices |
Iron Ore Market Tightness Supports Higher Forecasts
Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 iron ore price forecast to $93/t from $88/t, driven by macroeconomic support.
Meanwhile, steady steel production in China maintained port inventories, limiting supply shocks.
However, the bank warns that iron ore prices may decline to $88/t by late 2026 as oversupply resumes.
Supply Growth and Chinese Imports Influence Prices
Global iron ore supply grew 15% year-on-year this quarter, increasing seasonal stockpiling in ports.
In contrast, China’s imports remain robust, reaching 113.06 million tons in October 2025, second-highest historically.
As a result, 2024 imports hit 1.24 billion tons, up 4.9% from 2023, reinforcing China’s role in global demand.
The market remains under pressure despite recent price support from steady pig iron production and yuan appreciation.
Therefore, traders and steelmakers should anticipate volatility while monitoring China’s inventory trends and global supply growth.
Goldman Sachs highlights that short-term gains may not persist, urging strategic hedging against potential price corrections.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Goldman Sachs’ forecast reflects temporary tightness in iron ore markets.
However, seasonal stockpiling and China’s oversupply suggest prices will moderate by late 2026.
Scrap recyclers and steel producers should monitor port inventories for future procurement and risk management.
