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| HSBC Gold Price |
Geopolitical risk, ETF inflows, and new buyers sustain gold’s upward momentum
HSBC forecasts that the gold bull wave will continue into 2026, with prices reaching $5,000 per ounce. The rally builds on record-breaking momentum seen in late 2025, as spot gold surged past $4,300 and marked its strongest week since 2008. HSBC attributes the rise to a confluence of macroeconomic, geopolitical, and market structure factors — all amplifying demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
This forecast aligns with recent projections from Bank of America and Société Générale, both of which also see $5,000/oz within reach. However, HSBC adds a nuanced outlook, expecting average gold prices of $3,455 in 2025 and $4,600 in 2026, signaling volatility amid long-term bullishness.
Central bank buying and ETF flows drive long-term demand
Gold’s bull wave continues to benefit from sustained central bank purchases and rising inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These structural supports reflect rising concerns over public debt, monetary policy uncertainty, and trade disruptions. HSBC notes that new entrants into the gold market — including retail investors and institutional allocators — are likely to stay, even beyond the rally.
Meanwhile, anticipated US Federal Reserve rate cuts could further weaken the dollar, making gold more attractive globally. This environment strengthens gold’s dual role as a hedge against both inflation and systemic risk, particularly as geopolitical tensions escalate across key regions.
Price volatility expected in late 2026, but structural support remains
While HSBC expects gold prices to remain elevated into 1H 2026, it warns of potential volatility and price moderation in the second half of the year. However, unlike previous cycles, the current bull wave is underpinned by a broader, more diversified buyer base. As a result, even post-rally corrections may not significantly erode gold’s strategic appeal.
This new market structure — featuring long-term allocators rather than speculative traders — could lead to higher price floors and reduced downside risk. Gold’s role as a portfolio stabilizer appears more entrenched than in prior cycles.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The $5,000/oz gold forecast highlights intensifying risk hedging by institutional and sovereign players. For recyclers and scrap traders, sustained high prices may improve refining margins and secondary supply incentives. However, volatility will require precise timing and robust hedging strategies to manage exposure through 2026.
