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| Global Square Billet Prices |
Regional Variations Reflect Import Duties and Domestic Policies Impacting Prices
In September, global square billet prices showed mixed dynamics amid ongoing market challenges. On the Black Sea market, average prices dropped by $8 to $435 per tonne due to import duties in Egypt, stricter Turkish import regulations, weak finished product demand, and falling scrap prices. Meanwhile, some regional markets saw price increases between $3 and $8 per tonne, highlighting uneven market conditions.
Turkey’s billet market remains highly active. According to Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK), August billet imports reached 374,500 tonnes, a 38% year-on-year increase, at an average price of $479/t. China supplied 38% of Turkey’s billets, while Ukraine nearly doubled its shipments, gaining a 7% market share. However, new domestic regulations require Turkish exporters to source at least 25% of raw materials locally from October, challenging the reliance on cheaper imports, especially from Russia.
Production Growth and Market Adjustments in Turkey and China
Turkey increased billet production by 3.7% year-on-year to 15.8 million tonnes for January–August. Despite this growth, Turkish producers have started purchasing more domestic billets due to lower scrap prices, weak sales of long products, and preparations to meet new regulations. For example, Kardemir sold over 87,000 tonnes of billets at competitive prices in September, signaling a shift towards local sourcing.
In China, billet prices rose slightly by $2 to $424/t in Tangshan during September, buoyed by recovering steel futures and resumed local rolling operations. However, high inventory levels and production halts to reduce emissions capped transaction volumes by month-end. Prices fluctuated within the $416–428/t range throughout September.
Stability and Forecasts in Other Key Markets
Persian Gulf markets saw stable billet prices, with Saudi Arabia averaging $482–488/t (Ex-Works) and Indonesia rising by $4 to $464/t (CFR). Italy’s Ex-Works prices remained steady at $573/t despite minor intra-month fluctuations.
Looking ahead, the National Bank of Ukraine forecasts a 5.2% price decline for steel billets in 2025 to $478/t FOB Ukraine. However, modest rebounds of 2.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 are expected, driven by improving market fundamentals and potential demand recovery.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The mixed billet price trends reflect ongoing global supply-demand imbalances and regulatory shifts, especially in Turkey and China. Lower scrap prices and stricter import rules will likely reshape sourcing strategies, potentially supporting domestic scrap demand. Market participants should monitor evolving trade policies and emission controls, which will influence pricing and supply chain resilience.
