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| China iron ore imports |
Record-High October Imports Reflect Active Chinese Market
China’s iron ore imports are projected to reach 113.06 million tons in October 2025, marking the second-highest monthly figure in history. Despite declining domestic steel production, import demand remains strong. Analysts from Kpler highlight that this surge follows September’s record 116.33 million tons, demonstrating persistent purchasing by Chinese traders and mills.
Domestic Steel Output Decline and Market Dynamics
Steel production in China fell to 73.49 million tons in September, a 21-month low. In contrast, imports have offset weaker domestic output. Stockpiles at ports rose to 133.6 million tons, indicating proactive market positioning ahead of anticipated economic recovery. Early July price dips to $93/t stimulated buying, while end-October prices stabilized at $105–107/t, supporting continued imports.
Geopolitical Optimism and Annual Import Outlook
Optimism around a potential China-US trade truce at the APEC summit could further strengthen the raw materials market. China’s first nine months of 2025 imports totaled 917.69 million tons, nearly matching last year’s level. If October imports meet projections, 2025 could see a return to annual growth, following 2024’s 1.24 billion-ton record.
ScrapInsight Commentary
China’s robust iron ore imports amid declining steel output suggest strategic stockpiling by mills and traders. This trend may sustain global ore demand, influence port inventories, and support steel price stabilization. Policy shifts or trade improvements could further stimulate short-term market activity.
