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| Myanmar mine |
Impact of Man Maw Mine Closure on Global Tin Supply
The tin market continues to hinge on the uncertain reopening of Myanmar’s Man Maw mine, one of the world’s largest tin sources. The mine has been closed for two years due to a resource audit, and although the Wa State authorities invited mining permit applications six months ago, no production ramp-up has occurred. Consequently, tin concentrate flows to China have nearly ceased. This prolonged supply disruption has lifted the LME three-month tin price from below $30,000 per metric ton in April 2025 to above $35,000 by August.
China’s Supply Adjustment and Global Market Response
China’s tin smelters face supply challenges due to the absence of Man Maw concentrates. Imports from Myanmar dropped 77% year-on-year to 14,200 tons by July 2025, reflecting the lack of activity not only at Man Maw but also disruptions at smaller Myanmar mines, possibly caused by a March earthquake. Despite these challenges, China has partially offset shortages with increased imports from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Australia, and Nigeria. Nevertheless, total concentrate imports remain 32% lower year-on-year, squeezing smelter margins and reducing capacity utilization to below 70%. Some producers have temporarily shut operations, awaiting improved raw material availability.
Tin Market Outlook and Speculative Activity
Global refined tin inventories remain stable, preventing tightness in supply despite concentrate shortages. Indonesia’s export recovery supports global supply, and electronics sector demand has softened amid US-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, speculative funds have increased bullish positions on tin prices, betting on prolonged supply constraints. Yet, the timing for Man Maw’s return to full production remains unclear, and market watchers closely monitor any signs of resumed raw material flow from Myanmar to China for clearer outlooks.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Man Maw’s continued closure sustains tin market volatility, underpinning prices despite stable refined stocks. China’s reliance on alternate suppliers mitigates immediate shortages, but supply chain risks persist. Regulatory clarity in Myanmar and geopolitical factors will heavily influence tin price trajectories and recycling incentives.
