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| EU antidumping investigation |
Cold Rolled Coil Imports from Asia Face Costly Tariff Threats
The EU antidumping investigation into cold rolled flat steel imports threatens to raise costs for buyers across the bloc. Initiated on September 18 following a Eurofer complaint, the probe targets India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey, and Vietnam, which together supplied 67.7% of the EU’s imported volumes in 2024.
The European Commission warns that dumping margins may reach 50%, triggering provisional duties within seven months. As a result, importers face growing uncertainty, compounded by upcoming CBAM tax obligations and safeguard quota constraints.
CBAM, Safeguards, and Quota Limits Compound Cost Burdens
While the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) takes effect in 2026, traders already factor in its estimated EUR 40–70/t cost into contract pricing. However, the Commission has yet to publish CBAM emissions benchmarks, leaving room for market speculation and volatility.
Concurrently, April 2025 revisions to EU safeguard measures imposed a 13% cap on third-country cold rolled quotas. This led to a 39.9% decline in imports during April–May, after a strong Q1 rise. India, though under investigation, maintains a dedicated quota, unlike the other four nations.
Weak Demand Offsets Potential Price Gains from Protection
Despite protectionist measures, European steel demand remains historically weak. Eurofer downgraded its 2025 steel consumption forecast to –0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive year of contraction. Cold rolled coil prices declined significantly year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025.
In contrast, some Chinese and Korean suppliers are now quoting prices inclusive of CBAM and expected antidumping tariffs, attempting to hedge buyer risk. Nonetheless, many importers delay purchases until regulatory clarity improves.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The widening scope of the EU antidumping investigation reflects growing trade defense alignment with decarbonization goals. However, in a weak demand environment, duties alone won’t lift steel prices sustainably. Import substitution may support EU mills short-term, but long-term recovery hinges on demand revival and CBAM clarity.
