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China's dominance in antimony refining reshapes critical mineral geopolitics
China currently dominates global antimony refining capacity, raising significant geopolitical and supply chain concerns. Antimony, a critical mineral, plays an essential role in ammunition, semiconductors, flame retardants, and advanced alloys. Its strategic value makes refining control a lever of national power.
Refining concentration exposes strategic vulnerabilities
Approximately 89% of global antimony refining is controlled by China and Russia, with China alone accounting for the lion’s share. However, the data on Russia remains incomplete, implying the actual concentration may be higher. This creates a geopolitical chokepoint, particularly affecting Western nations reliant on steady supplies for defense and electronics manufacturing.
China’s state-backed firms dominate the midstream refining process, converting antimony concentrates—mostly imported from Myanmar, Tajikistan, and Bolivia—into refined trioxide and ingots. These products are then exported globally, feeding critical sectors such as EV batteries, microelectronics, and munitions.
Strategic minerals face increased scrutiny from the West
In response, the U.S. and EU have labeled antimony a “critical raw material,” emphasizing the need for domestic refining and diversified sourcing. However, Western refining infrastructure remains underdeveloped. Therefore, supply chain resilience depends on upstream investment, recycling innovation, and strategic stockpiling.
Meanwhile, Chinese antimony refiners benefit from economies of scale, lower environmental compliance costs, and centralized state policy. This combination reinforces Beijing’s leverage in key mineral markets, similar to its position in rare earths and graphite.
ScrapInsight Commentary
China’s grip on antimony refining underscores a recurring theme in strategic metals: upstream control without midstream sovereignty weakens supply resilience. Expect Western policy shifts to target recycling, substitution, and direct investment in refining capacity. In the short term, prices may remain volatile, especially amid rising geopolitical tensions and opaque Russian output figures.
