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| glencore cobalt surplus |
Prolonged DRC Export Ban Tightens Global Cobalt Market
Glencore, the world’s second-largest cobalt producer, warns that export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will likely cause a cobalt surplus by the end of 2025. The DRC imposed a four-month export ban in February, extended by three more months in June, aiming to curb oversupply and establish a quota system. As a result, Glencore stockpiles all cobalt from its Congo operations, expecting limited sales throughout 2025.
Production Increase Despite Export Challenges
Despite the export ban, Glencore increased cobalt production by 19% year-over-year to 18,900 metric tonnes in the first half of 2025. The company raised its full-year production forecast to between 42,000 and 45,000 tonnes, up from 38,200 tonnes in 2024. This growth contrasts with cobalt prices collapsing to record lows due to oversupply and weak demand from the electric vehicle (EV) sector, which remains the dominant consumer of cobalt globally.
Market Outlook and Strategic Adjustments
Glencore projects no significant financial impact even if cobalt sales remain constrained in 2025, viewing any resumed exports as potential upside. Meanwhile, the company signals a possible divestment from agribusiness, reflecting a strategic focus on core mining operations. This shift underscores the complex interplay between commodity supply restrictions and market dynamics in the cobalt and broader metals markets.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Glencore’s cautious stance on cobalt sales amid DRC’s export ban signals short-term supply tightness but risks long-term market oversupply. Prices may stabilize as inventory drawdowns accelerate, supporting the EV sector’s evolving demand. Regulatory moves in DRC emphasize the growing complexity of securing sustainable cobalt supplies for the circular economy.
