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| Ukraine rolled steel market |
Chinese Rolled Steel Imports to Ukraine Rise 70% in H1 2025
China has rapidly expanded its share in Ukraine’s rolled steel market, causing concern among local producers. In the first half of 2025, Ukraine imported 86.91 thousand tons of Chinese rolled steel—a 69.7% year-on-year increase, based on data from the State Customs Service.
Flat rolled imports from China reached 66.23 thousand tons (+43.6% y/y), while long products surged by 307.5% to 20.68 thousand tons. As a result, China now holds a 12.7% share of Ukrainian steel imports, up from 9.3% last year. The largest growth was seen in hot-rolled flat products (26.23 thousand tons, +225.4%) and cold-rolled products (11.78 thousand tons, +72.9%).
Threat to Ukraine’s Domestic Steel Industry
Ukrmetprom president Olexander Kalenkov warns that rising Chinese and Turkish imports pose an existential threat to Ukraine’s steelmakers. In particular, the surge in long-length products like rebar and wire rod—segments where Ukrainian mills are competitive—raises red flags.
According to Kalenkov, these imports benefit from cheap energy and often use Russian-origin steel billets, creating unfair pricing advantages. As a result, Ukrainian mills face declining domestic demand and eroded margins. If left unchecked, this trend could permanently displace local producers from their home market.
Industry Calls for Protective Measures
In response, Ukrmetprom urges swift government action to implement trade defense instruments. The domestic market, especially during wartime, serves as a vital economic buffer. Without intervention, Ukraine may lose critical steelmaking capacity, which is essential for both infrastructure resilience and post-war recovery.
Meanwhile, Chinese exports dipped 5.4% y/y in June 2025, yet long product imports rose sharply to 4.54 thousand tons—up from just 0.7 thousand tons in June 2024. This shift highlights structural changes in trade dynamics that favor exporters with cost advantages and logistical reach.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The explosive growth of Chinese rolled steel exports to Ukraine signals deeper trade imbalances. If unchecked, this may suppress domestic production capacity, risking Ukraine's long-term steel sovereignty. Policymakers must weigh short-term price gains against the strategic necessity of sustaining a national steel base in a volatile geopolitical landscape.
