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| South32 |
South32 meets annual guidance but faces long-term challenges in base metals output
Global diversified miner South32 exceeded its 2024–25 production targets for nickel, manganese, zinc, and copper, despite output declines and operational disruptions. However, nickel, manganese, and zinc volumes fell year-on-year, raising questions about the miner’s long-term capacity in critical battery and industrial metals.
Nickel Output Meets Target but Faces Future Contraction
South32 produced 37,100 tonnes of nickel at its Cerro Matoso mine in Colombia, down 9% from the prior year. However, this exceeded its 35,000t target, driven by enhanced processing efficiency despite lower ore grades. The company plans to sell Cerro Matoso to Corex by end-2025, citing pricing pressure in the global nickel market. As a result, its 2025–26 nickel guidance is sharply lower at 16,000t, reflecting only six months of output.
Manganese Disruptions Ease, Production Set to Rebound
Annual manganese production fell by 28% to 3.3mn tonnes, affected by Tropical Cyclone Megan and prolonged dewatering works at the Gemco mine in Australia. Still, South32 beat its 3mn t target, with South Africa’s operations contributing 2.2mn t—down just 1% year-on-year. The company aims to ramp up Gemco to its 6mn t/yr capacity in 2025–26, with production expected to rebound to 3.2mn t, up nearly threefold from the previous year.
Zinc and Copper Offer Mixed Outlooks
Zinc production from the Cannington mine fell by 20% to 241,900t, due to declining ore grades and underground complexity. However, South32 narrowly surpassed its guidance of 239,200t. The company is now reviewing the Cannington mine plan and has not released a zinc forecast for 2025–26.
In contrast, copper output rose 20% to 88,100t at the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile, supported by improved ore grades and recoveries. South32 targets 84,700t of copper production in 2025–26, slightly lower but still robust, assuming high ore grades persist.
ScrapInsight Commentary
South32’s 2024–25 performance highlights the company’s resilience in meeting output targets, despite operational headwinds. However, planned asset divestments and mine plan revisions signal structural challenges in sustaining base metals output. The expected recovery in manganese and stability in copper contrast with potential downside risk in nickel and zinc, which could influence scrap demand, pricing strategies, and investment trends in the recycling and secondary metals sectors.
