 |
| Gold price |
Trade Risks and Currency Weakness Drive Gold Price Gains
Gold price climbed over 1% on Tuesday as trade tensions and dollar weakness supported safe-haven demand. Spot gold reached $3,340.90/oz, hitting a weekly high of $3,357.85, while US gold futures surged to $3,353.80/oz. The gold price reacted sharply to growing concerns over tariffs and US fiscal outlook, both of which unsettled global investors.
President Trump’s proposed tax and spending package added $3.3 trillion to debt forecasts, fueling doubts about economic stability. Simultaneously, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that nations may face steep new tariffs after July 9, when the current pause expires. This looming deadline has amplified market anxiety and strengthened the gold price.
Interest Rate Outlook and Policy Signals
Investors closely track US macroeconomic indicators, including ADP jobs data and payroll numbers, for rate direction clues. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized stable inflation trends but noted tariffs remain a wild card. As a result, markets expect two interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points before year-end. Such moves, if confirmed, will further support the gold price, especially amid persistent trade uncertainty.
Analysts, including StoneX's Rhona O’Connell, believe that bargain hunting and geopolitical anxiety will keep gold elevated short-term. However, O’Connell also projects a decline in Q4, with gold averaging $3,000/oz or less, depending on fiscal developments.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Gold's surge highlights investor flight to safety amid fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty. If tariffs expand post-July 9, industrial metals including recycled gold and secondary materials could see renewed volatility. Scrap refiners and bullion recyclers should prepare for pricing spreads to widen sharply.
