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| Global rebar prices |
Global rebar prices are under downward pressure as seasonal demand slows and trade policy disrupts supply chains. While the U.S. market shows moderate gains, major producers in Turkey and the EU face weakening domestic and export demand. Chinese rebar prices rose briefly but remain highly volatile.
Turkey and EU Markets Face Falling Rebar Prices
Turkish rebar prices dropped to 2025 lows, reaching $536.8/t FOB as of July 4. Demand weakness, export quota exhaustion, and high interest rates weighed on the market. Since July 1, new EU duties further pressured Turkish exports. At the same time, low activity in the Balkans, Middle East, and Africa, combined with competition from China, forced Turkish mills to cut domestic prices to $525–540/t ex-works.
In the EU, Italian rebar offers fell to €500/t ex-works, the lowest this year. In contrast, Northern Europe held at €632.5/t. Seasonal inactivity, construction slowdowns, and cheap imports weakened sentiment. Despite stable scrap inputs, oversupply and buyer caution kept prices from recovering. Further declines are expected during the July–August holiday lull.
U.S. Prices Rise Amid Trade Protection and Producer Actions
In contrast, U.S. rebar prices rose 8.5% in June to $914.9/t ex-works. Key producers—Nucor, Steel Dynamics, Gerdau, and CMC—raised base prices by $60/t, plus $40 for 20-foot bars. The Trump administration’s decision to double steel tariffs to 50% weakened foreign supply options. Simultaneously, U.S. authorities launched anti-dumping and subsidy probes targeting Vietnam, Algeria, Bulgaria, and Egypt.
However, despite restricted imports, domestic demand remains modest. Commercial and residential construction remain weak, though infrastructure spending offers support. Market participants expect steady but cautious trends in July amid high financing costs and low economic momentum.
Chinese Market Volatile Despite Price Gains
China’s rebar prices rose 2.3% from early June, reaching $424.5/t FOT. The increase followed expectations of production limits and supportive policy signals after the Politburo meeting. However, fundamentals remain soft. Blast furnace operations continue, but construction demand suffers from seasonal heat and rainfall. Export opportunities are dwindling due to global price pressure and weak booking activity.
Manufacturers increasingly shift from rebar to billets and specialty steel, seeking higher margins. If the government does not implement output cuts, prices may pull back. Thus, China's rebar market faces instability despite temporary gains.
ScrapInsight Commentary
Global rebar prices are fragmenting as protectionism and seasonality drive regional divergence. Turkey faces sustained downside risk, while U.S. prices respond to aggressive tariff enforcement. Without a recovery in construction or easing financial conditions, the global rebar market may remain under pressure through Q3 2025.
