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| copper cathodes |
Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, faces mounting uncertainty over the proposed US copper tariff plan. President Gabriel Boric confirmed that Chile awaits formal notification on whether copper cathodes will be included. This follows former President Donald Trump’s statement indicating a 50% tariff on copper imports, raising concerns in both Santiago and global metals markets.
Codelco and Industry in ‘Wait-and-See’ Mode
Chile’s state-owned Codelco, the world’s top copper miner, has yet to receive policy specifics. Chairman Máximo Pacheco stressed the need to identify targeted product categories and determine if the US copper tariff applies universally. In contrast, Mexico hinted at redirecting copper exports. President Claudia Sheinbaum noted alternative markets remain viable, especially with global copper demand rising across energy and EV sectors.
US Importers Accelerate Shipments Ahead of Tariff Risk
As a result of policy ambiguity, US copper importers have front-loaded shipments. From January to April 2025, the US imported 461,000 tonnes, a sharp rise year-on-year. However, Chilean copper still faces transit delays of over 20 days, limiting flexibility. Despite the US market comprising only 7% of Chile's refined copper exports, potential tariff enforcement could distort global copper trade flows and pricing benchmarks.
ScrapInsight Commentary
The proposed US copper tariff introduces geopolitical uncertainty into a tightly balanced copper market. If enforced, rerouted supply could increase spot market volatility in Asia and Europe. Strategically, this may accelerate regional reshoring of refined copper production and reshape long-term trade alignments.
