China Boosts Steel Exports by 9.9% in May Amid Tariff Concerns

China's Steel

Export volumes remain above 10 million tons for third straight month

Iron ore imports decline as mills tap into cheaper port inventories

China's steel exports surged by 9.9% year-on-year in May 2025, reaching 10.58 million tons, according to customs data. This marks the third consecutive month of outbound shipments exceeding 10 million tons, indicating aggressive positioning by Chinese mills amid growing global trade uncertainties.

Steelmakers are pushing supply out early, driven by fears of looming tariff hikes from key markets. As a result, May exports reached a seven-month high and increased 1.1% from April. In the first five months of 2025, China exported 48.47 million tons of steel—up 8.9% year-on-year—while imports dropped sharply by 16.1% to 2.55 million tons.

Meanwhile, China’s iron ore imports fell to 98.13 million tons in May, down 4.9% from April and 3.8% year-on-year. Lower seaborne intake stems from mills choosing cheaper inventory from domestic ports instead of engaging in new purchases. This strategic shift also reflects weaker-than-expected demand and cautious restocking amid falling port stocks.

Portside iron ore inventories dropped by 2.8% to 133 million tons by the end of May—the lowest since February 2024. Some shipments were cleared early ahead of the May holidays, skewing monthly comparisons. Analysts from Mysteel and China Futures agree that May's iron ore volumes, although below projections, remain solid due to active mill restocking.

In the January–May period, China imported 486.41 million tons of iron ore, a 5.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Domestic production cuts and sluggish construction demand continue to redirect excess steel supply toward export markets, contributing to price pressure across Asia and the EU.

ScrapInsight Commentary:

China’s persistent export push adds downward pressure to global flat and long steel prices, impacting scrap demand in Southeast Asia and the EU. For recyclers and traders, this trend underscores the strategic importance of monitoring Chinese trade flows. If protectionist measures escalate, we could see more volatility in ferrous scrap pricing and shifts in scrap-grade demand by region.